404AI / GeneralarXiv:2606.12683
- It defines ASI as a system that is broadly superior to large groups of human experts and quantifies it with Legg-Hutter score.
- It outlines four transition paths: scaling, paradigm shift, recursive self-improvement, and multi-agent collective intelligence.
- Effective compute is growing at about 10x per year, driven by 1.5x hardware growth, 2.5x investment growth, and 3x algorithmic efficiency gains.
- Main friction factors include the data wall, compute and energy costs, rising research difficulty, and orchestration cost.
- Recursive self-improvement may enable explosive growth, but plateau is also possible.
- The paper emphasizes that AI safety, governance, and verification research must come before the transition to ASI.